Ward Predictions for Colchester Council Election
It is all up in the air at the moment, the National Conservative party is not having the best of weeks, but we are in a run up to elections. They may have to resort to a war with France for a poll bounce.
I am hoping in a way that this election will be absolute filth and the gloves taken off. However, politics should be aspirational but has now descended into a tribal mess.
One thing that is apparent is the progressive alliance is back up and running, so it is now up to the voters to do as they are told and vote for who the local leaders want to win.
Berechurch
The incumbent is Martyn Warnes (Labour) but Berechurch is a funny old area as it is hardcore Will Quince country. The Conservative candidate is Chris Piggott who has been working the ward for a few years now. he has made some gains and will expect him to maintain the trajectory. However, there will be plenty of daylight between the two.
Prediction — Labour Hold
Castle
Cabinet member Simon Crow (Conservative) is the incumbent and he won a four horse race when it was fashionable for all parties to contest elections. Now you have a bizarre situation where the candidate Martin Gillingham (Liberal Democrat) is publicly telling people (well on social media) to not vote for him and that he is a paper candidate.
Alan Short (Labour) does come across as the sort of chap who would storm Colchester Castle and re-purpose it as a homeless shelter. He is a proper old school socialist. We will miss them when they are gone.
I guess that leaves the Green Candidate Ian Kirkby-Taylor as the chosen one. It does strike me how the residents will find out about this masterplan, does Martin and Alan go door to door and tell people not to vote for them?
The Greens lost 18% of the vote share last time around, so will all the Insulate Britain, Diesel blockades and Extinction Rebellion protests finally have a more devastating effect?
However, it is difficult to reconcile with the residents that a Labour and Liberal Democrat have a vision for the town if they do not actually campaign there. “We will save M&S” they cry. “However, please vote green to do so!”
There will be tantrums.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
Greenstead
Bizarrely there is a growing wave of Conservatism in Greenstead and now Tina Bourne (Labour) is stepping away could it be Petra Crees (Conservative) time?
Petra has been working the ward for a while as does come across as someone who is robust enough to deal with the demands of an established estate and the surrounding areas.
The selected candidate for Labour is Molly Bloomfield and suspect that she will be supported by Tim Young and Julie Young who will no doubt rally their personal supporters to vote for her.
Shaun Broughton (Liberal Democrat) is also in the mix and is a veteran name around local politics. It will interesting to see if he is campaigning.
This is an unknown, but suspect Molly will edge this and win her maiden Colchester Council election.
Prediction — Labour Hold
Highwood’s
I would like to believe that the local Labour group listened to my advice and started to work the ward. However, it was more that likely to them being shunned by the Oxford’s to form the current coalition being the motivator. Jocelyn Law (Labour) has been working the area hard and from a pretty low base which is nice to see the locals getting a real choice.
The incumbent Philip Oxford (Independent) has stepped away and no other candidate is standing so it is a three horse, sorry two horse race due to the paper candidacy of the Liberal Democrats.
The other candidate is Stephen Rowe (Conservative) who has also been working Highwood’s for a few years. However, huge plot twist he is being backed by the Oxford’s as their preferred candidate.
Prediction — Conservative Gain
Lexden & Braiswick | Marks Tey & Layer | Mersea
A packed field. Despite there being so much national interest in politics it is a shame that there is not enough people who volunteer to actually get out there and fight the seats with canvassing and leaflet delivery. It would make the incumbents work harder and give residents much more choice.
All three incumbents are standing, Robert Davidson (Conservative) is the current Mayor. Martin Leatherdale (Conservative) is the new boy so it will be interesting if he retains his vote share.
Prediction — Conservative Holds
Mile End
David King (Liberal Democrat) is the incumbent but there was a strange movement in the stars the last time he went head-to-head with the David Linghorn-Baker (Conservative) during Essex County Council election, with it being a lot closer than expected.
There have been some rumblings about Mile End, which I will put down to rumour, but this could get interesting. A good Conservative showing will ensure that this will become a target seat. Much to the horror of the admins of the Mile End social media Facebook groups.
Mile End is the filthiest ward in Colchester with a blatant disregard by the local residents who just seem to litter everywhere.
It will be a fun watch.
Prediction — Liberal Democrat Hold
New Town & Christ Church
This candidate list reminds me of the first week of Great British Bake off and the ones who the producers give the camera time to, become the audiences favourites.
There is a legacy story of Robin James (Liberal Democrat) who fights to retain the seat held by his late father Nick Cope (Liberal Democrat). However, this seat has a history of being quite a bad tempered affair. We have had candidates attacked and vicious arguments and accusations between the Lib Dems and Labour in the past.
There are two seats up for grabs and think this will be an absolute mess when voting and just do not get it at all on the progressive strategy.
Carla Hales (Conservative) is lovely and no one has a bad word to say about her, and the attack she suffered was horrendous.
Who will win?
I will stick my neck out and say Robin James (Liberal Democrat) and the rest of the vote to be split across the entire pack. I will say Kayleigh Rippingale (Labour) as the party has tenure, but have they done anything with it?
Prediction — Labour Hold & Liberal Democrat Hold
Old Heath & The Hythe
It is not often that local elections have a single issue to fight on but here we have the Middlewick conundrum.
For the uninitiated Middlewick was placed into the local plan for 1000’s of houses by the last coalition council despite it not being needed. Lee Scordis (Labour) was part of that coalition, although he did speak up against it. He is up against the Chairman of Save Middlewick, Richard Martin (Conservative).
It is Richard’s first election, so would expect the narrative to be difficult for him to control. We also know Lee Scordis is quite the veteran nowadays so expect it to get very spicy.
However, the vast amount of students in the Hythe will vote as per type.
Prediction — Labour Hold
Prettygate
Roger Buston (Conservative) is the incumbent. I live in the ward and for the first time ever I have not had one leaflet from him. However, we have had 4–5 from John Loxley (Liberal Democrats). He has even knocked on my door, twice!
The first time he spoke to my daughter, I was asleep (long story) and she came and woke me and told me that a man knocked on my door with a survey. The second visit we just all observed him from our front window from behind the curtains and did not open the door. Not my proudest moment.
I suspect that this could be the biggest drop in vote share for the Conservatives in many years as John has worked hard.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
Rural North
No idea who William Sunnucks (Conservative) is. However, it is Rural North so will probably win. However, Neil Edward Jones (Labour) does look a credible candidate. It is worth watching this one.
If the vote share drops below 50%, there is a crisis afoot for the local Tories.
There must be some long standing Conservative candidates who have been fighting for years for a seat take a look at this and can not help but be annoyed.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
Shrub End
Well this could be very interesting. The online chatter is that the progressive agreement has been broken down and in Shrub End of all places. The Labour candidate Luke Hayes is actively canvassing and boasting of stealing Liberal Democrat voters. This provoked a public reaction. Popcorn at the ready.
In amongst all the testosterone flexing is Angela Linghorn-Baker (Conservative) who nearly took out Lyn Barton (Liberal Democrat) last year. For me this was the result of the night as Lyn is a well liked and highly credible.
She is now up against Mick Spindler (Liberal Democrat) who in the last 3 elections stood in Berechurch, last time around he lost 16.4% of the vote share.
I think this is a foregone conclusion.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
St Johns and St Annes
This is my favourite ward, I did famously predict the leader of the council Paul Smith would lose his seat several years ago and can see that he is back. (Only recently though to be fair)
Paul Smith (Liberal Democrats) has been reborn a new man, his now apostasy towards housebuilding is very welcome. To be fair there isn’t anywhere left to build as he oversaw the concreting of most of Mile End and Stanway. (Don’t tell him about Middlewick for gawds sake)
Also, he was famous for the cash giveaways such as the infamous £50,000 treasure hunt prize and general spaffing of funds on various projects none of which improved the town. It was which during that time the High Street looked like a sun-bleached crisp packet in a dirty puddle, but had money to burn nonetheless. It took Mark Cory to take over to show the towns potential so it was clear that leadership was the issue.
He is up against one of life’s biggest triers and online savings advisor to Jack Monroe, Thomas Rowe (Conservative). He came second last time around with only 37 votes in it, more impressive when up against the popular Mike Hogg (Liberal Democrats).
The Liberal Democrats are working this ward hard, even got the Greens to stand aside to make it even easier for them. This ward would be a gain for them as the incumbent Chris Hayter (Conservative) is stepping down. The literature that Paul Smith is putting out is a bit fruity and they are saving a lot of things that were never in danger. Which is stunning and brave.
The Facebook groups are looking a bit awkward.
I often believe that attack leaflets and posts are not made from a position of strength or confidence. So the doorstep may not be as kind as they make out. This does lead me to believe that Tom Rowe has a chance.
Prediction — Undecided
Stanway
Always the most toxic of wards. Last time around was a complete disgrace and signifies everything that is wrong in politics. Thankfully the residents saw through the negativity.
This time around (so far) it is a lot better. The toxic elements have now been removed and this is clearly a two horse race.
Tracey Arnold (Liberal Democrats) versus the leader of the Council Paul Dundas (Conservatives).
It does seem that Paul Dundas has a decent approval rating and is very established in Stanway. There has been lots of communication, some boosted which does invade some of videos I am watching on Facebook about cleaning rusty axe heads or Japanese carpentry.
Tracey Arnold has been presented well, but maybe on her first election this is a stretch two far with a ward with two Conservative councillors. One to watch for the future.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
Tiptree
Why does Tiptree overwhelmingly vote Conservative? The last election a new name (Roger Mannion) just rocks up and grew vote share by 7.8% and took 72% of the vote. This time around it is Rhys Smithson (Conservative) and will probably do at least 60% as well.
This is not good for politics and it is the conundrum that political parties must think about is how to attract rural voters.
Prediction — Conservative Hold
Wivenhoe
This is hardcore Liberal Democrat Country now. The EU can literally put its Headquarters here along with a Pret a Manger (The latter being more impressive)
Although results are not quite as they seem. The previous incumbent and current Labour candidate Cyril Liddy actually lost his seat last time up but grew the vote share by 13.5%. The last Liberal Democrat candidate Michelle Burrows lost 28.9% of the vote share. So maybe not as clear cut as they like, although we must appreciate just how well Mark Cory did last time, he is wildly popular like a South Colchester Tom Hardy.
The incumbent this time round is Andrea Luxford-Vaughan (Liberal Democrat), she does have a personal brand as being a bit of a sharp shooter and is respected by all. So the previous fall in vote share will be an outlier.
Prediction — Liberal Democrat Hold
In summary the only predicted gain is in Highwood’s for the Conservatives but undecided about St John’s now as it could get a bit 3D chess. A lot of new names standing this year so expectations should be where they are.
FINAL PREDICTION — NO CHANGE
However, what do I know?
7 million of the British public once tuned in to watch Mrs Brown’s boys.
