The Predictions for Colchester Council Election 2023
As with Christmas and Easter the only other annual event you can set your watch by is Colchester Council Election time.
Right, tall glass of wine poured and lets get into predictions ward by ward without any belligerence.
Berechurch
Is Dave Harris still about?
If the answer is yes, then whoever he endorses will win and in this case his dear leader and running mate Chris Pearson.
Poor old Simon Collis who has defected to the yellow birds, he does make quite the effort, but no doubt in vain.
PREDICTION Labour Hold
Castle
The only really exciting ward as Mark Goacher has been let back into the Greens or he was asked back, depending on who you believe is defending his seat.
He will be helped by the silliest of sausages Martin ‘don’t vote for me’ Gillingham and the invisible Labour candidate.
I feel the anyone but Conservative campaign will affect the enthusiastic Simon Crow, despite him being popular with the local residents associations for his previous work.
The Dutch Quarter residents just want to cycle and stop banks, cars, buses,oil,fun and large supermarkets from being in the town centre.
Plus the Libs and Labour clearly do not want the seat.
PREDICTION Green Hold
Greenstead
The incumbent Mayor is up and is having a renaissance as of late, his profile over the past year will do him well.
Love him or loathe him, he is a pro at this game and no one else will touch the sides when the votes come in.
PREDICTION Labour Hold
Highwoods
The Lib Dems winning last years bi-election was a shock and Alison Jay is up in such a short time. It was predicted that Labour would have taken the clean sweep and feel shenanigans were afoot.
Could go either way, but will still my neck out and say that Pauline Bacon could pip this one for a Red trio.
PREDICTION Labour Gain
Lexden & Braiswick
This is blue country and they will be in Barbour for Barber all day long. However, apathy for the Tories could be tested. Keep one eye on it.
PREDICTION Conservative Hold
Marks Tey & Layer
A bit of copy and paste from above to be honest and it does not even matter who is standing. (Andrew Ellis)
PREDICTION Conservative Hold
Mersea & Pyefleet
Well the incumbent is not standing and could we see the beginning of the end for the local Conservatives. I just do not see the Island moving left and the perennial annoyance of John Akker as an independent is the biggest name.
It depends what he is promising, which is more than likely none of us visiting let alone living on the Island.
The local Tories are aged but feel there is enough of a buffer to keep them in. They love Pat Moore so what can you do?
PREDICTION Conservationists Hold
Mile End
As with every election the Lib Dems will do very well, and the reason behind this is that they control all the Facebook groups and censor any dissent.
There are only a few places on Earth that free speech is as restricted, so the narrative is fully controlled.
The biggest challenge will be from the Conservative Phoebe Thompson, who is enthusiastic about Zara. Not sure this feels cost of living conscious to be honest with you.
It is not even necessary to see who the Liberal Democrat candidate is.
Obey.
PREDICTION Liberal Democrat Hold
New Town and Christchurch
This was once Lib Dem country, has Sir Bob’s office in Wimpole Road and was a clean sweep for quite a few years. It has now turned red. I think it goes to show that people vote for people.
The incumbent will retain, although Sam McLean does channel eternal protest face, which during the good times will not stand him in good steed.
Catherine Spindler is a veteran in this ward but always the bridesmaid and notice that Chris Piggot has moved from Berechurch to replace the usual ever present Carla Hayes.
PREDICTION Labour Hold
Old Heath & The Hythe
It is a shame that Adam Fox has stepped back, I did like the guy and thought he was genuine and had done a great job. (He still won’t date you Scott, so calm down)
A whole new cast, a few campaign vets in Richard Martin (Con) and Shaun Broughton (Lib). However, Richard is the only constant.
I am not going to be silly and predict a Tory win, but there is a lot of misinformation out there concerning Middlewick and if the others are not careful he could accidentally win (in their eyes).
The most likely outcome in a tight race is Labour win for Fay Smalls. It will be tight and my word the Coalition have ballsed Middlewick up royally.
PREDICTION Labour Hold.
Prettygate
I live in this ward and without wanting to sound rude the three councillors are Sue Lissamore +2. She is on it 25/8.
However, when it is not Sue up for election then the ward is vulnerable. Although let us get real for a moment, the fact the Liberal Democrat candidate John Loxely every Easter rises from slumber and manifests to tell all he ‘works all year round’ is laughable.
He does the sum of f*&k all, and is practically invisible until the first week of April every year. (On second large glass of wine)
There is not one story or anecdote of him doing anything for anybody.
Much like Berechurch and Dave Harris, all Sue needs to do is send our a letter with her face on and ask us to vote for x. Job done.
PREDICTION Conservative Hold (just)
Rural North
It is going to happen isn’t it! Tom Rowe is going to get elected and will be in the council. This will be pure banter.
Although I had high hopes for Jeremy Hagon but he behaves himself. (Boring)
I literally cannot wait for the first full council and the inevitable.
PREDICTION Conservative Hold
Shrub End
I did joke in my last blog that poor old Sam McCarthy has been kidnapped as the Liberal ‘hidden hand’ has taken over his Twitter account. Sam is a good lad and that is clearly not him.
Joking aside, he is the incumbent and Shrub End is usually close. Lyn Barton was nearly beaten in recent memory so it is possible. Especially as Labour fancy this as well and Luke Hayes has stolen vote share.
The Conservatives have done well in the past, but lets be honest with each other they are possibly sliding a bit in popularity over the past year.
This could be naughty, but I may stick my neck out…. No lets be sensible.
PREDICTION Liberal Democrat Hold (slimmest of margins)
St Anne’s & St John’s
An area where the biggest change in the past 20 years was a Greggs opening, not a lot as expected happens here.
Some of the nefarious tactics in Mile End also apply here where any vocal online dissent is crushed. We can never forget the nonsense in the last local election but it is always a win at all costs approach.
The chosen one will Natalie Sommers.
PREDICTION Liberal Democrat Hold
Stanway
I live literally 50 metres from the border and this ward is probably the most toxic of discourses you will ever encounter in politics. Thankfully, it has an active Parish Council but not a happy place.
There is no other outcome than the incumbent Lesley Scott-Boutell but if there was any evidence required for a case for 4 year elections then this ward is it.
PREDICTION Liberal Democrat Hold
Tiptree
I mean come on. Welcome back to the Council Paul Dundas.
PREDICTION Conservative Hold
Wivenhoe
The dashing and gorgeous Mark Cory wins this all day long (he won’t date you Scott). Not even close is this contest and will be the largest majority of the night.
PREDICTION Liberal Democrat Hold
So there we have it and only predicting one gain and that is Labour in Highwoods. Not the most interesting of elections to be fair. Although it would technically make the Labour Party the largest party in a coalition.
I do not think this will impact the ‘City’ much, the potential new leader Chris Pearson went native many years ago so expect pretty much the same.
Yawn. Thats the bottle gone.
Hic…
