Local Elections | One week to go
The countdown has begun and Thursday next week the polls will be open at 7am sharp until 10pm. The ballot boxes will be taken to Charter Hall and counted along with the postal votes.
As always, during election night I will be in the studio at Actual Radio HQ with my thoughts and commentary as the drama unfolds.
I really hope there is drama.
So how is it going so far?
It is interesting to observe the shenanigans and you can tell how a campaign is going by how the candidates and activists behave on social media. Along with a healthy amount of gossip, my view on how it is going is below.
I must say that if you do see any candidate that has made a personal attack on an opponent, then it is usually because that candidate is behind and getting a negative reaction on the doorstep. It also goes double if they mention the opposing candidate by name, as it is a political NO NO. There have also been a number of conspiracies and that is never a good sign of a campaign that is going well.
This does give me an idea on the outcome and may possibly alter my predictions. I have decided to not directly name the candidates below, this is because it is not a personal attack on them but just a commentary as to a potential outcome.
What are the key wards? (Colchester Borough)
Castle| The Conservative vote did hold up in 2019 despite the loss of the seat to the Greens. Now that all parties are campaigning, which the Labour and Liberal Democrats did not do last time around, I expect a different result. This will eat into the Greens momentum and could lead to a Conservative gain. I called this in my last blog post, as the vote share will be split due to all being new candidates. Every time a seat is targeted by the Green’s, Labour and Lib Dems lose vote share and it will become a problem for them in the future.
New Town & Christchurch| I have not changed my opinion on this being a gain for Labour’s high profile candidate, who is very highly thought of across the political spectrum (well according to my DM’s she is). Winning this seat could be the tipping point for Labour and expect they will go all out to win it.
Shrub End (New)| Not in a million years would I have called this against the incumbent Liberal Democrat candidate. However, there is now a buzz around the Conservative newcomer, and it could be closer than first thought. However, credit to the incumbent candidate for playing a straight bat, it is refreshing to see.
Stanway | I originally believed that this would be a potential easy gain for the Liberal Democrats. However, seeing the behaviour of the candidates for County and Borough in the local paper and on-line, even making the news with their complaints on BBC Look East which was cringe. On reflection and hand on my heart those banners looked awful and a product of Clip Art.
It has made me stop and think, and I have said before that Stanway has a utterly toxic discourse online but I feel it has the potential to now be held by the Conservatives.
St Anne’s and St John’s | I feel for the incumbent Liberal Democrat and is one of the last Gatekeepers of the majority they hold in leading the coalition. It does seem neck and neck at the moment and did predict it will be close. I’m now undecided.
Wivenhoe | There have been rumblings about the area this week with an alleged call to arms to support the Labour incumbents. It would be absolute scenes if they lost County to the Liberal Democrat’s . However, I just don’t see the Labour incumbent losing in the Borough elections.
Most likely outcome
The way it is looking at the moment, the Conservatives will fall short by 1 or 2 seats in taking an overall majority. However, if Labours vote holds up in Wivenhoe and they win New Town & Christchurch, they could be the leading party in the current coalition. Thus taking over control of the leadership.
Expect plenty of politics to follow. If this was me in Labour’s position, I would only agree to the coalition if unpopular projects were scrapped. (even if Labour were party to the creation of them in the first instance) There is 2022 to think about and everyone loves a hero, I can even see the leaflets now.
You know what, I believe the Liberal Democrats and Highwoods Independents would also agree to those terms as well.
Tune in live to Actual Radio at 10:00pm on Election Night for the analysis, opinion and results.
The County Council elections are still a bit dry, with Wivenhoe now the only one in danger of looking exciting. The count for this is on Friday, but wouldn’t stay up late for it.
