Lexden Bi-Election Predictions

Due to some shenanigans that we may never publicly get to the bottom of it is election time again.

It must be hard when you become a Councillor as your family time is severely impacted. It is a thankless job that really just suits the divorced, singletons, empty nesters, retirees or power hungry sociopaths.

The names have been announced and what a motley crew we have before us.

Let us take a look by party.

Conservatives

It has been said that the entire lead up to the last election in May that Martin Leatherdale was on holiday. He managed to bang out a video beforehand and phoned it in and still was elected! Lexden is solid Blue it seems.

This of course going against the national trend. Lexden & Braiswick is the epitome of a safe seat for the Tories (or is it?).

We now live in different times, and since May anything is possible. It is noted that if Lexden falls, then so will Will Quince. The underbelly of Conservatism in Essex is rooted in this Village so it will be targeted, as if this changes then the entire Conservative vote could collapse nationwide.

So there was a vote to find a candidate and not without incident apparently, and it is now out with the current crop of Colchester Conservatives and in with the new. Well I say new, the current selection of Sara Naylor no doubt is twin set and pearls all day long and probably has Barbour wellies in her boot and a horse somewhere. She is a throwback to more assertive times when a certain lady was not for turning.

The modern day ‘Tories’ have practically morphed into 2010 Lib Dems, waffling on about cycling, renewable energy and tax hikes. Even the voters don’t like them anymore it seems, as the current Government has ignored their base.

Maybe Sara is the breath of fresh air Lexden and Colchester needs, and will stir up the proverbial pot and whip everyone into shape. I do sense a them and us situation with the members being dragged kicking and screaming to deliver.

During one of my political workshops a local Lexden person referred to Priti Patel as a centrist melt. Thats where we are folks.

I predict the most Nimbyist bi-election ever, and it will be delicious.

Greens

Not even bothering to stand so sorry to all Lexden Green Party fans, they ain’t giving up no weekends for anyone this summer!

Since the Monday after the May election the newer two have gone native so it is actually not a surprise. Mark Goacher is back as the lone guardian and outrider of Green values, especially after the Middlewick debacle.

I did hear that Simon Crow would have voted against Middlewick, which will confuse the views of pool boys from Layer and and progressive crustacean workers from Stanway

However, the local GINO’s (Green in name only) don’t want to rock the boat as they are now onto a good gig. I am sure there was never an agreement in place at the last election, surely?

Liberal Democrat’s

Surely they have got to fancy this?

They do have the capacity to send coach’s and collect housewives from outside Pret-a-Mangers all across London during the vinegar strokes of the election to blitz leaflet, so they have the edge if it does gets close.

Martin Goss is even litter picking in the area, as obviously this is another opportunity for him to raise his profile as the Parliamentary spokesperson.

The candidate Kieron Hayes is young and fresh and it is not within the realm of impossibility that he could win. He is impressive, as it must take some commitment to stand and live in two places at the exact same time as in the 2021 local elections. Or maybe America Chavez took Kieron from the multiverse and placed a version of him in Doncaster and all this is a massive co-incidence (which is more likely to be fair).

However, a victory will depend on the Labour fully stepping aside. They are the bosses in the coalition so it will be interesting to watch.

Labour

On paper Labour should just stand aside. However, there is a risk that allowing a high voter base to move to an opponent will damage future voting potential for them. Labour have done well the past two general elections and Colchester is now a target seat.

They have a decision to make as to whether they are satisfied with being a junior partner in the coalition or to set themselves up for the General Election in 2024. Tactically they have nothing to lose and everything to gain by contesting the seat. If the boundaries do not change then not using this opportunity to focus on the ward could create up to a 10% swing due to the size of the boxes. It does not affect the council so they have to go for it.

It will be interesting to see where the local Progressive Twitter Pravda throw their hat in support of Catherine Bickersteth. A long cycle ride during a weekend visit to North Essex will no doubt clear their heads on where loyalties lie.

I have also heard that nonsense is a foot in the Parish at the sheer temerity of Labour trying to stand and sending out leaflets attacking Lewis Barber has drawn progressive ire. I do like Adam Fox and would lose my absolute proverbial excrement with glee if he turns around and says “I am the leader of the Labour Party and I will do what the f*ck I want to”

Or will Labour just poodle for NJ & JS and follow the diktat instructed by their Prog Col overlords?

Prediction

For far too long the local Conservative party has been a bit soft and they have forgotten that politics is a contact sport. Subsequently Liberal Democrat’s and Labour clearly do not value local issues as much as national issues. The change in direction will see a brutal contest with some aggressive go getting that will put fire into the opposition party activists, it will get tasty but Nimbyism will win this election.

I do predict that Lexden will lose its safe seat status, but the Conservatives will win by a margin of only 100–200 votes depending if Labour steps away.

Are we witnessing the beginning of the fall of Rome or will the incumbent fight off the Liberal Visigoths for now?

There will be damage for the Conservatives but with the news cycle potentially moving onto fines for Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner there is still an opportunity. However, the Liberal Democrats need desperately for Labour to step away. Although doing so will impact Labours chances in the 2024 General Election.

A big call for Adam Fox.