Colchester Election Special – The battle for Prettygate

Well, an unlikely hotspot of political intrigue and let’s be honest the ward is hardly deserving of such attention, but here we are.

Why the intrigue?

Well, believe it or not there will be a General Election next year (possibly Autumn) and Prettygate is firmly in the ‘Colchester’ constituency.

If the Liberal Democrats or Labour want to do well then it needs to establish a vote share in this ward so it could potentially transpose to a national endorsement.

2022

The vote in 2022 was closer than expected. The incumbent Conservative Councillor Roger Buston was duly re-elected. However, it was with a reduced vote share of -13.9% with the Liberal Democrats growing by 19.2%.

It was said that Labour putting up a paper candidate played a part, and this was a tactical error for Labour.

2023

The least established of the three sitting candidates (Leigh Tate) is up for re-election and with the current trajectory it would take a swing of less than 200 votes for the Liberal Democrats to take the seat.

The problem being, is the challenger John Loxely has done nothing since the last election and first letter through the door was April. So, they have a lot of work to do to make up the ground.

Now, this is where it gets complicated. Labour has a 76% chance of winning the seat at the next General Election and not campaigning in areas such as Prettygate, Lexden and Shrub End will reduce that overall percentage. Hence, the error to put up a paper candidate in 2022 could cost them.

There has been some campaigning and expect Labour to pick up additional votes which would negate the predicted swing. They need to take vote share from the Liberal Democrats or during the 2024 Election you could potentially have a three-way battle and that would mean that the most established vote will remain.

This could mean a shock Conservative 2024 victory in the next general election.

What is happening out there?

In general campaigning has been very poor from all parties, and the reluctance to engage social media effectively means they are not getting any messaging across. Not one party is using effective multi-channel communication and the biggest winner will be voter apathy.

So, what are the parties saying?

The Liberal Democrats have opted for mudslinging and a negative campaign and attacking the candidate. They are also taking credit for Government funding and criticising the government for not funding enough.

Labour is more general and talking about local issues such as potholes, reviving the NHS which is probably away from the remit of local government. Also, they criticise Essex County Council for reducing funding from potholes, but this money was diverted to Adult Social Care so not telling the whole story when they said they would have prioritised the roads.

The Greens, nothing. There has never been a leaflet delivered.

The Conservative literature is full of ‘action’ shots of clean ups and examples of cost cutting in local elections, saving the kerb side garden waste from being removed.

Summary

The Conservative leaflet is marginally better and the most aspirational, the Labour leaflet is a bit confused, and the Liberal Democrat version is an attack document with no substance.

All parties have made huge campaign errors and the unwillingness to engage via video and/or on social media apps will have an effect.

Being nice does not work and with other subconscious biases are already being exploited by political campaigns. One such effect is the so-called ‘negativity bias’, a well-documented tendency of people to preferentially remember negative information and allow negative emotions to dominate decision-making.

The above is what the Liberal Democrats have used effectively in campaigns in St Johns and Stanway and now in Prettygate.

Prediction

The unwillingness for the Conservative candidate to engage in negative politics will be their undoing, and I can no longer say that the seat will be retained.

However, psychologically wise the most easily to be disgusted are far more likely to be politically Conservative, so a populous that is easy to turn by negativity can be turned again the other way. Otherwise, the Liberal Democrats would be the biggest party in the UK.

A huge campaign error by the Prettygate Conservatives which will allow the Liberal Democrats to win by a tiny margin.

However, 24 hours to change.