Colchester Council Elections- Runners and Riders May 2021

As it is now a tradition of every election, here are my thoughts on who will be the winners and losers by ward and look into some interesting candidates and will predict the victors and ultimately who will win the Game of M̶o̶a̶n̶s̶ ̶B̶i̶n̶s̶ Colchester.

There are only a few wards with any actual excitement with most who will return to form. The wards to keep an eye on are Castle, New Town, St Johns and Stanway. We do like a bit of drama.

The current set up of the Colchester is as follows.

Conservative (23) 🔵

Liberal Democrat (13) 🟠

Labour (11) 🔴

Independent (3) ⚪️

Green (1) 🟢

This is a race to get to 26 seats and whichever party has the majority or a coalition formed, will run Colchester Council.

Berechurch | Incumbent: Dave Harris, Labour Party 🔴

Almost everyone knows who Dave Harris is in Colchester as he is pretty active in the Gazette Newspaper with pictures of broken Marrows or holding a birthday celebration for a pothole. He has done well as to not get drawn in with the nuances of the current administration.

He has Mick Spindler (Lib Dem) who is an ever-present candidate with going up against him. In the last election, he gained an additional15.9% of the vote share with Labour losing 9.4%. However, he is against a local titan and cannot see a repeat.

However, the Conservative candidate Chris Piggot is working the area hard and during the General Election Berechurch was Will Quince Country with heavy returns from the ward.

There will be a collapse of support for the Lib Dems from 2019 with the vote share moving to the Conservative.

Prediction: Dave Harris, Labour. HOLD 🔴

Castle Ward | Incumbent: Nick Barlow, Liberal Democrat 🟠

As with every other election cycle, Nick Barlow decides he does not like it any more and steps down. (we will see him again in 2023 no doubt)

There will be four fresh faces contesting the seat with the Greens having the momentum (not them ones, sooooooo 2017) from the last election where Mark Goacher deposed the Conservative leader Darius Laws.

However, Green issues were so hot during those times and the political landscape has now changed.

Steph Nissan (Greens) has taken to social media to call for a fair clean election then proceeded to trash parties and stand on a platform of national issues. It is all well and good, but residents just want their bins collected and potholes filled.

Labour never have any luck in Castle and I was present when Richard Hill was having his campaign photos taken. I tried to sneak in the shot for giggles.

I suspect that this seat will fall to either Martin Gillingham (Liberal) or Fabian Green (Conservative) with only the latter seen as working the ward. The Alumno issue will certainly play a part, with the Conservatives having the better narrative and the Greens not committing to opposing the budget that will bring it in.

Prediction: Fabian Green, Conservative, GAIN 🔵

Greensted Ward | Incumbent: Julie Young, Labour 🔴

It is not worth any other party printing a leaflet. Although it would be interesting to keep an eye on the Reform Party.

Prediction: Julie Young, Labour, HOLD 🔴

Highwoods Ward | Incumbent: Gerard Oxford, Independent ⚪️

This is a fascinating ward as it is strange how none of the other parties goes for it. The real reason is that although interest in politics is at an all-time high, the actual getting off your backside and working a ward is not. Armchair Churchills or Stalins, depending on your leanings.

The only other party semi-working this ward are the Conservatives, but cannot see the majority being overturned unless resources are allocated.

I used to live in this ward (many moons ago) and the Highwood independents stand outside the polling station demanding to know your name before entering. I refused, and the younger Oxford tried to prevent me from voting. Me being me, threatened to call the police then he “allowed” me to pass and vote. When I was inside the issue was reported and again online. Nothing came of it.

Prediction: Gerard Oxford, Independent. HOLD ⚪️

Lexden & Braiswick | Incumbent: Dennis Willetts, Conservative 🔵

Brian Jarvis, Conservative is stepping down so this ward is ‘double bubble’ with two vacancies.

However, the ward is hardcore Tory, so expect Martin Leatherdale who has been given the golden ticket to be elected.

Prediction: Dennis Willets & Martin Leatherdale, Conservative HOLD 🔵🔵

Marks Tey & Layer |Incumbent: Kevin Bentley, Conservative 🔵

It has to be noted that Kevin Bentley does not live in the ward but is the County Councillor for the area as well. However, it is a Conservative ward and bedrock of the areas spiritual leader and main CBC antagonist, Priti Patel.

Prediction: Kevin Bentley, Conservative HOLD 🔵

Mersea & Pyefleet | Incumbent: John Jowers, Conservative 🔵

The legendary campaigner John Akker is not standing and he pushed pretty close in 2019. John Jowers is a high profile name and will be returned easily enough as the other parties have put up paper candidates.

Prediction: John Jowers, Conservative HOLD 🔵

Mile End | Incumbent: Martin Goss, Liberal Democrats 🟠

The Litter King is all over social media these days with his escapades, and a fallen crisp packet cannot innocently rest on the streets of Mile End without being spotted by Martin. All his Facebook community groups are also pretty locked down, with some pretty aggressive admins, who do not seem like nice people at all.

There was a Liberal gain of 13.1% at the last Council election and the vast building program and import of new residents (mainly from London) will no doubt do him in good stead in this election.

Labour finished last in 2019 and it would be tough to campaign for no return, so the main competitor is Rachel Smith, Conservative.

Prediction: Martin Goss, Liberal. HOLD 🟠

New Town & Christ Church | Incumbent: Theresa Higgins, Liberal 🟠

The highly thought of ex-Mayor and Liberal Theresa Higgins is standing down, which is a huge loss to the town. It creates a power vacuum as all parties try and claim this seat.

Oh, where to begin.

This is a bad-tempered ward when during the last election the Conservative Candidate, Carla Hales was brutally attacked whilst out campaigning and there was rabid discourse between the Labour and Liberal Candidates.

What is interesting is that the seat is being contested by Professor Pam Cox, Educator and Television historian and regular talking head. However, you have not seen her do a lick of campaigning. From what local Labour party members have told me privately (I won’t name names) this is a stepping stone to becoming the next parliamentary candiate.

There is a current Labour Councillor in the ward, but the area has been traditionally Liberal due to Sir Bob Russells presence in the area.

It will be interesting to watch this unfold, but believe the public will vote for the glossier candidate. Hope her schedule allows Professor Cox to be present on voting day.

Prediction: Professor Pamela Cox, Labour GAIN 🔴

Old Heath & Hythe Ward | Incumbent: Mike Lilley, Labour 🔴

Usually, this would be Labour all day long, but there is the issue with regards to Middlewick Ranges. Whilst the area has been listed by Colchester Council for 1000 homes in the local plan, the fact that Mike Lilley is a cabinet member could be sticky.

I expect the narrative to be ever-changing and it will hurt him with some votes, but not enough.

Prediction: Mike Lilley, Labour HOLD 🔴

Prettygate Ward | Incumbent: Sue Lissimore, Conservative 🔵

This is a double election due to Beverly Davies, Conservative stepping down. The golden safe seat has being handed to Leigh Tate.

I live in this ward and can guarantee that no trees will be uprooted by any other party for leaflets and this is an easy conservative win.

An awful lot of activity taking place in the ward for a dead cert. However, this is endemic across all parties and wards to maintain the status quo.

That being said Sue Lissimore is very popular but has not been challenged for years due to paper candidates.

Prediction: Sue Lissimore, Leigh Tate, Conservative HOLD 🔵🔵

Rural North | Incumbent: Christopher Arnold, Conservative 🔵

Christopher Arnold has stepped down and is being replaced by the former party leader Darius Laws.

They had 61% of the vote share last time so will call this.

Prediction: Darius Laws, Conservative HOLD 🔵

Shrub End Ward | Incumbent: Lyn Barton, Liberal Democrat 🟠

Lyn Barton is a local icon and with both Labour and Greens having previously poor campaigns in this ward, the only other contender is Angela Linghorn-Baker, Conservatives. There has been two conservatives seats in previous years with the former Cllr Vic Flores losing last time around.

This maybe a foregone conclusion.

Prediction: Lyn Barton, Liberal Democrats HOLD 🟠

St Anne’s & St John’s | Incumbent: Mike Hogg, Liberal Democrat 🟠

This is a 2-way battle between Liberal’s and Conservatives with not many votes in it. Previous campaigns from Labour and Greens have had very poor returns.

Whilst Mike Hogg has been around forever, there were rumours he wanted to retire. The great yellow bird in the sky wants him for one last battle.

The area itself is very ‘Brexity’ and the positions held by the National Liberal Democrats have not been very well received. They have lost an awful lot of vote share over the past few years and the Conservative Tom Rowe is campaigning very hard.

This will come down to less than 50 votes and a recount.

Prediction: Mike Hogg, Liberal Democrats HOLD 🟠

Stanway | Incumbent: Fiona Maclean, Conservatives 🔵

The incumbent is standing down (seems a lot of Conservatives have in 2021). This seat was dominated last time around in 2019 by the irascible Liberal Democrat stalwart Lesley Scott-Boutell , so they have the momentum.

The Conservative candidate in 2019 was Jeremy Hagon, and he is standing again this time, My gut tells me that the chips are stacked against him.

Stanway is now very different and the now name changed ‘Little London’ (a result from overbuilding) has altered the local political map since 2016 with London placements from the Peabody Trust housing associations plus some of the more desirable new estates. One of the worst local Facebook groups in Colchester is the Stanway one, it is vicious and only joined because my daughter goes to Stanway school. It is pretty toxic stuff.

The conservatives lost 12.1% vote share last time around and do not see the opportunity to gain it back. If all four parties campaigned it would be a different story. It is not the case, so only one outcome. Although I have got this seat wrong the last 3 elections!

It is worth keeping an eye on the Labour paper candidate to give you an idea of where the ward is heading politically.

Prediction: Paul Williams, Liberal Democrat, GAIN 🟠

Tiptree Ward | Incumbent: John Elliott, Conservative 🔵

As it is getting quite fashionable it seems John Elliot is stepping away from his role and Roger Mannion is taking his place. According to the statement of nominations, he is the only one to live in Britains smallest town.

Prediction: Roger Mannion, Conservative, HOLD 🔵

Wivenhoe | Incumbent: Cyrill Liddy, Labour 🔴

In 2019 Mark Cory, Liberal Democrats took 67.3% of the vote share with a gain of 17.8%. However, the Liberal Democrat candidate is an unknown going against the top placed candidate in the last all-out elections.

Wivenhoe is a strange old egg, as it is clearly home to a lot of weekend London creative types so it is hard to put your finger on the real issues such as Brexit, Trump, Sourdoughs or Potholes. The area is clearly becoming one of Britains last hotbeds for hardcore Liberalism, and if I hear on the news it has split away from the United Kingdom and became an independent sovereign nation and joined the EU, a mild shrug would be my not so surprised reaction.

However, like old slippers, people like to feel comfortable.

Prediction: Cyrill Liddy, Labour HOLD 🔴

So where does this leave us on the prediction on who will win control of Colchester Council? (overall results)

🔵 Conservatives | 23 Seats

🔴 Labour | 12 Seats

🟠 Liberal Democrats | 12 Seats

🟢 Greens | 1 Seat

⚪️ Independent | 3 Seats

The Liberal Democrats lose the advantage of being the largest party in the coalition with a change in dynamic most likely.

There are now four potential outcomes.

1. 🔴🟠⚪️ The Rainbow Coalition remains: However, there will be an almighty power struggle as to who will lead the Council. It will be either Cllr Julie Young (Labour) or Cllr Mark Cory (Liberal) or maybe a joint leadership?
2. 🔵🟠 Conservative & Liberal Democrat Coalition: This feels unlikely as there is bad blood between them.
3. 🔵⚪️ Conservative & Independent Coalition: The Highwood Independents are the clear kingmakers, it depends on what concessions are on offer.
4. 🔵 Conservative Minority: If no agreement can be made with a coalition then the largest party will be asked to lead the council. However, issues will be decided on a vote-by-vote basis and will be certainly challenging.

Next blog I will run down the runners and riders for the County Council Election which are running at the same time.